Does Princeton have an honest chance of making it into the 2012 NIT? A popular question around these parts to be sure. The Tigers would certainly like to play in this postseason tournament but I’m unsure at how legitimate that dream is.

So, I did some extensive work after I got home from the Big East Tournament tonight. For this step-by-step exercise I’ll be using Ken Pomeroy’s rankings.

Before you click through, realize that Princeton is ranked 84th in Pomeroy as of this morning. I'll try and update these numbers as we work up to Selection Sunday.

Here we go...

Step one: Copy a list of Pomeroy’s Top 100 teams.

Done. I’ve even put them all into a Google spreadsheet if you want to take a look.

Step Two: Review the most recent entry in Andy Glockner’s Bubble Watch series.

Using this as a list of NCAA Tournament "Locks" and "Should Be In" tourney teams, I put all those schools in bold. They're the NCAA's concern now, not mine.

That’s a minimum of 43 out of the 83 teams ahead of Princeton going to the NCAAs.

Step Three: Pick a Pac-12 team.

I chose Cal. One of these schools has to make the NCAAs. Perhaps no more than that. We’re up to 44 now.

Step Four: Look at the list of NIT automatic qualifiers who won their conference's regular season title.

This group includes Drexel, Iona, Middle Tennessee State, Oral Roberts and Valpo. Bucknell just lost the Patriot League final while I was working but gets an NIT slot as a consolation. All of this reduces a 32 team NIT field to 26 available slots.

Step Five: Eliminate teams with sub-.500 records, if any.

For now I’m knocking Villanova (13-18), Oklahoma State (14-17) and Virginia Tech (15-16) out of consideration though the Hokies could reemerge if they win an ACC Tournament game.

Step Six: See what we’ve got left.

26 Texas (19-12)
37 UConn (19-12)
39 Miami (18-11)
40 West Virginia (19-12)
42 Long Beach State (22-8)
44 UCLA (18-13)
46 Seton Hall (20-11)
48 BYU (25-8)
49 NC State (20-11)
50 Northwestern (18-12)
52 Arizona (21-10)
53 Stanford (20-10)
54 Tennessee (18-13)
56 La Salle (21-11)
58 Oregon (22-8)
59 Minnesota (18-13)
61 St. Bonaventure (17-11)
62 Dayton (20-11)
63 Xavier (19-11)
64 St. Joe’s (20-12)
65 Washington (21-9)
67 South Florida (19-12)
69 Illinois (17-14)
70 Clemson (16-14)
71 Wyoming (20-10)
72 New Mexico State (23-9)
73 Ohio (24-7)
74 Mississippi State (21-10)
75 Pittsburgh (17-15)
76 Denver (22-9)
78 Georgia State (21-11)
79 Colorado State (19-10)
80 Akron (21-10)
81 Cleveland State (22-10)
82 Marshall (18-12)
83 Tulsa (17-13)
84 Princeton (19-11)

That’s 37 teams for 26 NIT slots, however...

...several of these programs will make it into the NCAA Tournament.

Joe Lunardi of Bracketology fame, for example, has Northwestern, Seton Hall, Drexel (which frees up one more NIT space) and Xavier as his last four in.

Let’s take them off the board for now. If they're not going, schools with similar profiles are (barring any more bid thieves, of which few remain). They’re all shown in red on the Google doc.

We’ll also remove some of Lunardi’s more secure tournament teams in UConn, West Virginia, Long Beach State and BYU. They’re shown in blue on the Google doc.

Step Seven: Adjust accordingly.

26 Texas (19-12)
39 Miami (18-11)
44 UCLA (18-13)
49 NC State (20-11)
52 Arizona (21-10)
53 Stanford (20-10)
54 Tennessee (18-13)
56 La Salle (21-11)
58 Oregon (22-8)
59 Minnesota (18-13)
61 St. Bonaventure (17-11)
62 Dayton (20-11)
64 St. Joe’s (20-12)
65 Washington (21-9)
67 South Florida (19-12)
69 Illinois (17-14)
70 Clemson (16-14)
71 Wyoming (20-10)
72 New Mexico State (23-9)
73 Ohio (24-7)
74 Mississippi State (21-10)
75 Pittsburgh (17-15)
76 Denver (22-9)
78 Georgia State (21-11)
79 Colorado State (19-10)
80 Akron (21-10)
-----------------------------
81 Cleveland State (22-10)
82 Marshall (18-12)
83 Tulsa (17-13)
84 Princeton (19-11)

Unfortunately, counting down from 26 only takes us to 80 on this list (which is by no means an exact ranking in the eyes of the NIT committee) and that assumes there will be no more regular season champs eliminated in conference tournaments headed to the NIT instead.

On the more positive end, I doubt all of these teams will decide to continue their seasons even if offered (freefalling Illinois and potentially Pitt for example).

I think this is where it is up to Princeton to make a compelling case.

Sell the NIT on your strong finish, your recent history in tournaments, your six postseason victories since 1996, your second-strongest profile in the 15th-strongest conference!

Heck, even tell them to look up the TV ratings on the ESPN family of networks for some of the Tigers' postseason games.

If you’re looking at RPI (where the Tigers are 87th), you can boast four wins against Top 100 teams (with Yale a hair under the cutoff at 102).

Push to be the road team against a La Salle or a St. Joe’s if it gets you in.

Also, use some recent historical data. For example I found...

Two years ago Northwestern got an NIT bid with a Pomeroy rating of 82 and a 115 (!!!) RPI. They played at and lost to Rhode Island. Perhaps Mitch Henderson can ask his former employers how they pulled that one off.

NC State got in at-large in 2010 with a 95 RPI, 68 Pomeroy.

In the same tournament St. John’s RPI was 87 and their Pomeroy was 67.

Last year Nebraska was an NIT five seed with a Pomeroy rating of 60 and an 87 RPI.

Ole Miss got in as an at-large with a 70 Pomeroy and an 85 RPI.

There are precedents.

The NIT's procedures for picking a 32 team field can be found here if you want to learn more.

In conclusion, it looks like it will be a very close call but lobbying could put Princeton in the NIT field for the first time since 2002. If not a CBI bid (most likely on the road) is all but a certainty.

The Tigers profile is much stronger than it was when I parsed this info repeatedly two seasons ago.

Bonus Step:

Root for Long Beach State to win their conference tournament and for all of Princeton's 2011-12 opponents that are still alive to do well between now and Sunday. Go Buffalo, NC State and Florida State! You can also cheer against the seven or eight teams above the Tigers on the Pomeroy table. Anything to help the profile. This writeup by Mile High Mids should provide added direction.