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Plus/Minus numbers through 10 games.

December 14, 2010 at 11:09 am
Filed under +/-, Basketball, Princeton

The Princeton athletic department was kind enough to quickly fulfill my request for plus/minus numbers on each of the Tigers through Sunday's trip to Tulsa.

This chart shows the number of minutes played across the first 10 games this season and the difference in points scored by Princeton while each player was on the floor versus points allowed by the Tigers during the same span.

I've also broken down +/- per 40 minutes for all players who have seen at least 100 minutes of action.

 
Player            Minutes           +/-
Davis             364:48            +46 
Hummer            326:47            +38
Mavraides         356:26            +32
Maddox            321:14            +20
Clement           11:27             +6
Foley             2:22              +5
Hazel             3:36              +5
Comfort           1:19              +3
Edwards           1:19              +3
Connolly          175:58            +2
Sherburne         3:12              -4
Darrow            205:51            -5
Barrett           27:04            -11
Saunders          177:56           -16
Bray              118:33           -40

Princeton has scored 723 points to date, allowing 704 points.

As for individual single game highs and lows, Mack Darrow was +21 verus Bucknell. Ian Hummer and Mack Darrow were each -34 at Duke.

The most successful lineup combination?

Kareem Maddox, Douglas Davis, Dan Mavraides, Ian Hummer and Brendan Connolly, who were +20 in 43:26 together.

The least successful five? Maddox, Mavraides, Hummer, Connolly and T.J. Bray, combining to go -15 in 8:54 of play. They only scored four total points while on the floor as a group.

The combination that has played the most together is a bit of a surprise: Maddox, Davis, Mavraides, Hummer and Darrow. Over 86:45, they're +15 and have scored 159 of the team's points (22.0%) as a unit.

Plus/minus divided by 40 minutes for the regular eight player rotation:

Davis +5.04
Hummer +4.65
Mavraides +3.59
Maddox +2.49
Connolly +0.45
Darrow -0.97
Saunders -3.60
Bray -13.50

If you want to compare these numbers with a season ago at the same juncture, you can do so here.

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Coco said,

December 14, 2010 @ 12:10 pm

I'd have to say that the biggest statistical surprise (for me, at least) has to be the negative number for TJ Bray. I definitely had the impression that he was playing very strong defense, and while not shooting much, nonetheless seemed to be doing a good job of subbing for Mavraides and/or Davis.

Will have to dig deeper into his numbers.

Jon Solomon said,

December 14, 2010 @ 12:13 pm

I too was surprised.

One theory:

Bray has come in on a number of occasions for defense late in games (such as Sunday at Tulsa) and if you're playing more defensive possessions than offensive possessions, you only have a chance to pick up negatives, not positives.

Jon

Mike Knorr said,

December 14, 2010 @ 3:50 pm

While his negative numbers were surprising to me also, TJ Bray can play for me any day.

Jon Solomon said,

December 14, 2010 @ 3:55 pm

As discussed back channel, Bray was -22 versus Duke in 19:50 of action. You're welcome to back those numbers out if you wish.

Can post full team Blue Devil +/- info if that's of interest.

Despite the overall plus/minus data, I still contend Bray's the best perimeter defender on Princeton. Don't be surprised if he's used the way he was used versus Tulsa in close games the rest of the season.

Jon

Glenn Morris said,

December 14, 2010 @ 4:14 pm

The very good news is the positive numbers march far down the roster indicating much more consistent, careful play throughout the roster.

I

Brian said,

December 15, 2010 @ 1:43 pm

Couple of things:

Pus-minus stats are posted for each game in the HD box scores, if you want to dig in further. For example, the Duke +/- stats are right on this page:
https://www.princetonbasketball.com/1011/dukehd111410.txt

A popular stat trick with +/- is Net/40, or Roland Rate, which is On/40 less Off/40 (team +/- while player sat, divided by time not playing). It's easy enough to work out from what's posted above.

Player On/40 Net/40
Davis +5.0 +24.6
Hummer +4.7 +12.8
Mavraides +3.6 +11.8
Maddox +2.5 + 2.9
Connolly +0.5 - 2.3
Darrow -1.0 - 5.5
Saunders -3.6 - 9.4
Bray -13.5 -21.3

As you can see, Net/40 generally trends with On/40, but does show some subtle differences (e.g. Davis now looks like the clear MVP, while Hummer and Mavraides are on a second tier above Maddox, Connolly is now on the negative side).

Of course, raw +/- stats generally should be taken with an enormous grain of salt.

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