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The (fearsome and mammoth) "Next Year" thread.

The NCAA Tournament is winding down and new site content is accordingly slowing to a measured pace.

This strikes me as a perfect time to open the FEARSOME and MAMMOTH "Next Year" thread.

Princeton will return five of their top six leading scorers from 2012-13 including four starters and a pair of All-Ivy selections in T.J. Bray (second team) and Denton Koon (honorable mention). They also retain the services of Division I's top three point shooter, Will Barrett.

Gone is the Ivy League's Player of the Year, Ian Hummer. With the additional losses of Mack Darrow and Brendan Connolly the Tigers go from a front court-focused squad to one with a greater back court balance.

Added to the roster for the coming campaign are six recruits (read about them all here) plus a trio of scheduled returning upperclassmen in Jimmy Sherburne, Ben Hazel and Daniel Edwards. There's also the 7'2" Edo Lawrence, who was lost most of his freshman campaign due to various issues.

Harvard will be formidable. The league as a whole should be stronger from top to bottom than it was one season previous.

Expectations?

Anticipations?

Theories?

Hopes?

Requirements?

Concerns?

Regressions?

Transformations?

Discuss it all in the comments!

Coco said,

April 1, 2013 @ 9:15 am

From the Liars, Politicians, and Statisticians Division of the NCAA

If you look for Will Barrett's name atop the "official" NCAA D-1 stats for Individual Three Point Shooting Percentage, it is nowhere to be found.

Why? Well, hard to tell. Ask the NCAA.

Down at the bottom of the page it says that to make this list, the player must have made an average of 2.5 shots per game (Will made 48 in 27 games from 93 attempts= .516%. Only 1.7 attempts per game.)

See http://www.ncaa.com/stats/basketball-men/d1/current/individual/143
their top Three Point shooter was 96 in 207 attempts for 46.4%)

Oh well, we KNOW Will Barrett can shoot the three...and hit it.

Jon Solomon said,

April 1, 2013 @ 9:19 am

ESPN's criteria:

"To qualify, a player must be on pace to play in 75% of team games and average more than 2 three point attempts per game."

larry said,

April 1, 2013 @ 11:53 am

Also consider experience gained by the coaching staff.

George Clark said,

April 1, 2013 @ 12:08 pm

I think another 10-4 Ivy record would be an excellent season, especially in a "better League." After losing the second all-time career scorer last year our overall record dipped. This year we lose a POY, one of the greatest players in Tiger history, and...the second all-time career scorer. A platoon of new recruits may point to a rebuilding year in Jadwin.

richard woodward said,

April 1, 2013 @ 12:19 pm

With no disrespect intended to Hashim Moore or Pete Miller (I just haven't seen as many articles or videos of them), the other four recruits seem to represent one of the strongest groups of recruits I can remember in a long while. Each of them seemed to be the spark-plug, go-to player on their respective teams, and it's easy to envision any one of them becoming a double figure scorer for the Tigers. Have you gotten any indication from the coaches that they consider this a particularly strong recruiting class?

I just wonder about the fact that three of them--Cook, Caruso and Weisz--are all about the same size at 6'4"-6'5", which is sometimes problematic in Div. 1 college hoops, if they are used to scoring inside.

I'm sorry I didn't catch any games in person the last two years. It would have been nice to see Ian Hummer put his stamp on Princeton basketball history.

Jon Solomon said,

April 1, 2013 @ 12:43 pm

One interesting thing about the 2013 recruiting class is I think you could find someone who would be willing to claim each of the six was the best of the lot.

steve silverman said,

April 1, 2013 @ 12:44 pm

So often we focus on the players coming back, but it's possible that coaching will play a big role in determining next season. Will Tommy Amaker be back at Harvard? I've heard rumors that USC is interested in him, but that so far he has spurned their overtures. If Harvard were to lose Amaker, it could open up the Ivy race; otherwise, they obviously enter the season as the prohibitive favorite. Next season will be Mitch Henderson's third as Princeton's head coach and it will be interesting to see how he continues to grow and evolve in that role. I think it's fair to say that he hasn't necessarily met expectations yet, particularly during this past season. However, I expect he will continue to get more comfortable and adept in the role of head coach, particularly as he begins to coach a group of his own recruits. So, while Harvard looks like something close to a sure thing to repeat next season, if they lose Amaker, we could see something similar to what happened in 2004-05, when Joe Scott returned to coach a loaded Princeton team and the Tigers were the prohibitive favorites to repeat as Ivy champs. It didn't quite work out that way.

Gregg Lange said,

April 1, 2013 @ 1:36 pm

If any of the other newbies (much less all of them) are of the court quality of Spencer Weisz, we could have some fun. He could well be an All-Ivy at #2 by his sophomore year, barring cataclysmic injury.

On the returnee front, I would hope the coaches learned some major lessons from the excruciating Search for Hans Brase. Still, November may be a wild adventure.

Daniel Maass said,

April 1, 2013 @ 1:42 pm

I expect that we'll move to a more traditional version of the Princeton Offense. With the athleticism of Hummer and Maddox we strayed from our traditional sets, but next year I anticipate that the team will resemble those of the early 2000s. In all likelihood every starter on next year's team (Brase, Barrett, Koon, Bray, and a-guard-to-be-named-later) will be adept at hitting 3s and Brase looks primed to fill a Chris Young-like role as a center with accuracy from the perimeter. Henderson's recruiting seems to reflect this as Miller is likewise a big man who can shoot and everyone else (Weisz in particular) is a tweener who can both shoot and pass, but isn't particularly athletic. I expect that it'll take a long time for the players to adjust to this, so we'll have a weak non-conference performance but then rebound for the Ivy League. That said, Harvard, sadly, looks pretty unstoppable.

John Poole said,

April 1, 2013 @ 1:44 pm

Harvard is so loaded with talent that, even without Amaker, it would take a truly terrible or intransigent coach to lose with this group. On the other hand, with a different coach, Harvard may not attract the same high level group of recruits. I think that, even if our new recruits work out, we are at least a couple of years from competing for the title. But, hopefully, it will be fun to see this new group develop. They all seem to be prototype team players. But it would help to have a couple of dominant players to build around.

George Clark said,

April 1, 2013 @ 3:19 pm

I doubt Amaker will leave Siyani Chambers after one season, especially after recruiting him for five. If we accept Jon's assumption that the league will be better, and I do, we need to Improve to stay where we are. To contend for the title may be a stretch, but Koon and Brase are potential all-Ivy players for 2014-2015.

TigerHeel said,

April 1, 2013 @ 5:25 pm

I agree with Daniel above, that next year will mark a return to a more traditional Princeton offensive set. I look forward to watching Bray both run and lead the offense his senior season, and I am hoping for more consistent play from Barrett, Brase and Koon. What the Tigers need to find early, though, is a strong player at the #2 slot who can both defend quick guards on the perimeter (see, e.g., last year's struggles against Harvard's Chambers and the respective guards for Yale, Rutgers and Fordham, among others) and provide a scoring threat (as hoped for from Clay Wilson). Clement demonstrated that dual potential late in the season. It will be interesting to see how Hazel and Sherburne fit into the mix in the backcourt.

And, as noted above by many, there are the freshmen, who from the looks of Jon's and others' posts could comprise a special class. It's hard to predict how the freshmen will fit in, and I look forward to watching them progress.

TigerHeel said,

April 1, 2013 @ 5:30 pm

One more note re: Harvard: there's no way Amaker leaves now with the team that he has returning and the guaranteed media attention that awaits. If Tommy is ever to leave Cambridge (one can hope), it would happen after either a consistent top-25 run, an even stronger NCAAT finish, or another, more widespread scandal. All three are possible next season.

Jon Solomon said,

April 1, 2013 @ 5:41 pm

I agree with Daniel above, that next year will mark a return to a more traditional Princeton offensive set. I look forward to watching Bray both run and lead the offense his senior season, and I am hoping for more consistent play from Barrett, Brase and Koon. What the Tigers need to find early, though, is a strong player at the #2 slot who can both defend quick guards on the perimeter (see, e.g., last year's struggles against Harvard's Chambers and the respective guards for Yale, Rutgers and Fordham, among others) and provide a scoring threat (as hoped for from Clay Wilson). Clement demonstrated that dual potential late in the season. It will be interesting to see how Hazel and Sherburne fit into the mix in the backcourt.

I think Jimmy Sherburne would have filled a few of these requirements in 2012-13 had he not been injured. Who knows what that would have meant to the rotation and others' development though.

One more note re: Harvard: there's no way Amaker leaves now with the team that he has returning and the guaranteed media attention that awaits. If Tommy is ever to leave Cambridge (one can hope), it would happen after either a consistent top-25 run, an even stronger NCAAT finish, or another, more widespread scandal. All three are possible next season.

Yup. I wouldn't be surprised to see Amaker's name continue to be in the mix for prime open jobs only so he can tell Crimson recruiting targets he passed on going to "School X" for the chance to do something at Harvard. It is shrewd on his part. I tip my hat.

(I'm not wearing a hat.)

Jon

Steven Postrel said,

April 1, 2013 @ 5:56 pm

I expect the Tigers to compete for the Ivy title. Harvard should be favored, but I don't see them taking a big leap in quality over this year's team unless Saunders improves between seasons again or Smith acquires a lot more consistency. Curry and Chambers play the same position; Casey is talented and exciting but also inconsistent and foul-prone, and he hasn't improved much since I first saw him. I don't see their team next year being better than, say, this year's Akron or Bucknell teams. We'll see.

As for Princeton, without improvement from returning players the team will be worse, but I expect history to repeat and improvement to take place. I think Daniel is on the right track with Brase playing the Kit Mueller role. He'll need to work on not getting pushed under the basket by opposing big men, but I think he has the right mix of skills and temperament to be a great high-post hub of the offense. If Bray can develop a mid-range off-the-dribble move such as a consistent pull-up jumper or a runner/floater, then he will be very hard to guard and be able to bail out the offense when the shot clock is running down. Koon has untapped potential as a three-point shooter and a shot blocker.

I never put much faith in freshmen making a big impact right away at Princeton, but Brase and DD showed that it can happen. Barring attrition, this team will have a lot of bodies in the backcourt/swing positions--Bray, Clement, Hazel, Sherburne, Wilson, Koon are just the ones with significant experience. The problem will be in the low post, especially defensively. Can Garbade play? Who else will step up?

As far as style goes, I'd like to see the team practice and play more zone defense as part of the mix. It's still going to be possible to throw a lot of long arms out there at the same time, and lateral quickness to stay in front of dribblers is still going to be an issue. Obviously it would have to be a zone that was aggressive matching up on the ball, given all the outside shooters in the Ivies, and you have to practice knowing whom to box out, but it seems like a good fit with this team. Maybe they could get more turnovers and turn them into cheap baskets, too.

Jon Solomon said,

April 2, 2013 @ 10:35 am

Steve, USC has hired Andy Enfield from Florida Gulf Coast.

http://www.usctrojans.com/sports/m-baskbl/spec-rel/040113aaa.html

Stuart Schulman said,

April 3, 2013 @ 6:05 pm

Many questions about the Princeton program itself, but let me throw out a few more about alumni:

* Will Ian Hummer get an invite to the Portsmouth Invitational and/or the Las Vegas summer league, and how will he do against his draftable peers?

* Will he seek, and will he get, and invite to an NBA training camp, or will he sign with a top European league?

* Will Kareem move to a more competitive league? (Does he have to wait for his UK citizenship to make doing so easier?)

* Will Coaches Earl, Greenman, Brennan, Koncz etc stay put?

Jon Solomon said,

April 5, 2013 @ 9:14 pm

Stuart,

No Ian Hummer on the current Portsmouth rosters, unfortunately.

https://www.portsmouthinvitational.com/ROSTERS.html

Jon

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