With a 16 point win at Florida A&M, Princeton hit the halfway point of the 2011-12 schedule.
What do you make of the 8-7 Tigers so far?
Where do you think they're headed the final 15 games of the season?
Predictions? Observations? Surprises? Expectations?
Discuss in the comments below.
Ken Pomeroy predicts the Tigers to go 18-12, 9-5 in the Ivy League.
Losses at Penn, at Yale and in both Harvard games, plus one more expected slip up in a game they're currently projected to win.
Jon
Based on the "known knowns", Pomeroy's guess is as good as any.
I like a good mathematical model as much as the next person; I make a living playing around with models like this. But I know there is no way for a mathematical model to capture what the growth of Bray and Koon will mean to the probabilities of victory. It is unlikely that Pomeroy's model will capture the impact of Will Barrett's return in a few weeks. On the other hand, there is no way for a mathematical model like Pomeroy's to capture the impact--positive or negative--of the one-on-one matchups Connolly vs Mangano, Connolly vs Wright, Darrow vs Mangano, Bray vs Rosen etc. The model likely can't factor in how well every team knows its rivals' tendencies in a way you don't see in nonconference play.
And of course there are black swans out there...academic ineligibility, a broken bone, food poisoning, a blizzard negating home court advantage...or even a couple of cheap fouls in the first minute on a marquee player like Rosen or Hummer.
In short, 9-5 is a good guess, but the variability around these numbers is greater than the model would predict about itself. The probability of Princeton winning the whole thing (or Yale or Penn) is probably greater than what comes out of Pomeroy's Monte Carlo model. Put me down for 11-3.
Although the Ivy Hoops Online article was very down on Brendan Connolly, Brendan did an impressive job containing OD Anosike through most of the Siena game. If he plays that kind of defense against Harvard and Yale, it will be a very valuable contribution.
I am an eternal optimist when it comes to Princeton basketball - I always think the team will figure out a way to win the league until they are mathematically eliminated. 12-2.
From reading that article, I got the sense the author didn't see the Northeastern, Siena or Florida State games as Connolly did pretty much what he was asked to do by the coaching staff in each of those contests.
Also, you can't mention that Connolly hasn't started since November without using the word "Darrow" in your analysis.
Jon
I have a feeling that the seemingly infinite road trips will cause Princeton to be extremely focused and very revved up to play in Jadwin this year.
Welcome to the Jungle: 7-0 at home
Adam, for that reason I think Princeton has to go at worst 4-1on the road to open Ivy play if they want to contend for the league title. Won't be easy but I'm eager to see'm try.
I noticed on Pomeroy that Princeton is #1 in the nation in allowing the fewest 3PA/FGA at 20.7. The length on the perimeter has been forcing teams to make twos. Also noticed that in Princeton's worst games, the opponents had much higher free throw rates. So the key to effective defense has been to deny threes and contest twos without excessive fouling. And then rebound.
Offense has gotten better since some bad games in November. To compete for the title, still need Saunders or Connolly or someone to contribute more consistent offense by converting the open shots when teams double Hummer.
Just need to focus on Cornell and Columbia for now. A 2-0 road trip before exams would be huge.
I, like others, was initially skeptical of our endless road trip, but I now think it was a good thing for two reasons: First given that the ivy league schedule was beyond our control (?) I think it's good that the team is used to playing on the road. Second, and more importanly, this was a team in transition with the loss of mavraides and Maddox as well as a new coach and playing on the road together builds team spirit. It's one thing to practice together, it's another to be sharing hotel rooms.
Finally, the Harvard game is the same night as club initiations. Think we can get the athletics department to ask the clubs to push them back a few hours : )
I'm going to go Shock The World and put the Tigers at 12-2 with another playoff victory to win the NCAA trip. That's my utility-maximizing guess, balancing anticipation and the possible future happiness of I Told You So against the risk of disappointment. From a wagering perspective I would say 11-3 or 10-4; I just don't see five conference losses in the Tigers' future. None of the Ivy opponents can put up the kind of strong full-court pressure that an FSU or Wagner specialize in, and only Curry and maybe Cartwright are the kind of speedy penetrators that discombobulate the team's defense.
Connely is on track in the last few games to get to where he was at the end of last year, Darrow's been good on offense, Koon and Bray will only get better, Barrett was just rounding into form before he was injured, Hummer's been a beast all season but seemed to reach greater heights on the Florida trip, and DD seems to have picked up his defense in addition to his clutch scoring. I have a feeling Hazel will be needed at some point this season, despite his slide out of the rotation lately, and I think he'll step up when that happens. So I like the Tigers chances because they're still improving individually and collectively. That said, we've seen some surprisingly good results and near-miss wins from the likes of Columbia and Cornell, and Penn and Yale could be tough games, so lapses in concentration of the kind that have popped up from time to time this season could be costly.
One more prediction: The Ivy POTY will NOT come from Cambridge.
I think this team can achieve a league record of 11-3.The Pomeroy model "concedes" 9 wins. That's a good place to start. None of us will be surprised if we lose on the road at Penn, Yale and Harvard. To outperform the "model" we are looking at wins in two games we are projected to lose. That strikes me as doable, especially at home. Will 11-3 be good enough? If we assume Yale will beat Harvard once, clearly within the realm of possibility, we must get help from another team somewhere, perhaps Penn. We have seen three teams with identical records previously. It could happen again.
I'll post this in tomorrow's news as well, but Big Apple Buckets re-ran their 10,000 simulations of the Ivy League after Harvard's loss to Fordham...
http://nycbuckets.com/2012/01/ivy-league-projection-the-rise-of-the-middle-class/
I have to admit I expected, fair or unfair, far more from Connolly this year. I agree with Steve that Connolly is on track to get where he was at the end of last season. I expected him to start this season at a higher level. I agree with jon that recently he is doing what the coaches ask. I just hope he can do more. We need Connolly. He may be the difference between 9-5 or 11-3.
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