Updated Plus/Minus numbers.

January 9, 2012 at 8:58 pm
Filed under +/-, Basketball, Princeton

The Princeton athletic department was nice enough to generate and send over plus/minus numbers on each of the Tigers for the 2011-12 non-conference slate.

This initial chart shows the number of minutes played across the first 16 games this season and the difference in points scored by Princeton while each player was on the floor versus points allowed by the Tigers during the same span.

I've also broken down +/- per 40 minutes for all current rotation players, pulled +/- for DI opponents only and added Net/40 numbers ("Roland Rate") with inspiration from Hoya Prospectus.

Here's the data for the complete roster:

 
Player            Minutes           +/-
Davis              531:33           +68
Bray               522:58           +66 
Koon               231:08           +59
Darrow             360:11           +58
Hummer             537:53           +52
Saunders           341:28           +5
Hazel               97:06           -2
Wilson              15:59           -7
Fabrizius            2:32           -8
Comfort             76:02           -11
Edwards              7:03           -11
Garbade              8:15           -13
Connolly           286:07           -14
Clement             16:24           -16
Barrett            142:47           -18
Sherburne           87:45           -20

Princeton has scored 1029 points to date, allowing 987 points.

As for individual single game highs and lows, Mack Darrow was +31 at Northeastern. Brendan Connolly was -22 in the same game.

The most successful lineup combination? Still the group who has played the most together:

T.J. Bray, Douglas Davis, Ian Hummer, Mack Darrow and Patrick Saunders, who are +28 in 123:34 of play.

The least successful five? Now the fifth-most used lineup and the initial 2011-12 starting lineup:

Bray, Davis, Will Barrett, Hummer and Brendan Connolly, combining to go -12 in 30:51.

Subtracting the two DIII games, +/- adjusts as follows:

 
Player          Minutes        +/-
Koon	         196:31	       +55
Bray	         470:45	       +33
Davis	         484:26        +30
Darrow	         316:42	       +20
Hummer	         502:24	       +11
Barrett	         124:51	       -7
Connolly	 256:30	       -24
Sherburne	 73:58	       -25
Saunders	 307:00	       -31

Plus/minus divided by 40 minutes for the regular nine player rotation:

Koon +10.21
Darrow +6.44
Davis +5.12
Bray +5.05
Hummer +3.87
Saunders +0.59
Connolly -1.96
Barrett -5.04
Sherburne -9.12

Net/40 (“Roland Rate”) numbers:

Davis +13.2
Bray +12.1
Koon +11.8
Darrow +8.6
Hummer +7.1
Saunders -4.1
Connolly -7.9
Barrett -9.7
Sherburne -13.5

Net/40 (“Roland Rate”) numbers (DI opponents only):

Bray +12.3
Davis +12.1
Koon +11.8
Darrow +8.6
Hummer +2.9
Barrett -3.5
Connolly -7.3
Saunders -9.6
Sherburne -16.0

If you want to compare these numbers versus 10 games in, you can do so here. The biggest increase is Davis' +40.

Permalink

Rodney Johnson said,

January 10, 2012 @ 9:22 am

It strikes me (without any statistical expertise) that the rise in Davis' numbers, and the nominally poor numbers of Sherburne, are due in part to Henderson's substitution pattern. Often late in the game Davis sits on defense and comes in when we regain possession with Sherburne as the defensive specialist. No one can score on Davis when he sits, and Sheburne can't participate in a successful offensive possession if he isn't in the game.

Jon Solomon said,

January 10, 2012 @ 9:25 am

Rodney, that's correct - though Sherburne has been in on more offensive possessions recently.

Sherburne's numbers also take a hit due to his -19 in 23:05 to open the season versus Wagner. He's been near-level since then.

Jon

George Clark said,

January 10, 2012 @ 9:35 am

Interesting information but does it have any predictive utility? No one is surprised that Bray, Davis and Hummer are included in the "most successful" player combination. What is the significance of the conclusion that these three are also on the "least successful" five? Those guys play a lot of minutes and the team is 9-7.

Jon Solomon said,

January 10, 2012 @ 9:42 am

I'd say the significance is that the "least successful" was the initial starting lineup and the "most successful five" is the lineup that Henderson has used the previous 10 games (where the team is 7-3).

Also, Koon's numbers stand out given that he comes off the bench.

Last time I ran these it was pretty clear that Bray needed to play more and that's worked out well for all concerned!

Jon

Adam Fox said,

January 10, 2012 @ 11:06 am

I really like Denton + Ian as a combination. Their skills are "somewhat" similar, and they compliment each other well: we've seen Denton make some nice cuts for wide-open layups and/or dunks, when teams are looking to double up Ian down low. Also, he nabs a lots of rebounds (lets not forget 10 rebounds against FSU, one of the best rebounding teams in the nation).

Does Koon remind anyone of Ian as a freshman? (Granted Ian likes to post up and go straight up against defenders a bit more, but I don't think the comparison is too ridiculous)

Koon had only 6 minutes against Siena, I don't think it is a coincidence that Hummer had a tough game that day.

George Clark said,

January 10, 2012 @ 11:19 am

Well, yes and no. Bray needed to shoot better, and more frequently, than he did early on and he clearly is doing that. If that is the result of the stats suggesting "pretty clearly" that he "needed to play more" I don't understand how to read them. Koon has played well "coming off the bench" but I know that from watching him. I guess what I am saying is that the "numbers" are surely descriptive, but hardly prescriptive. We need Connolly to play and to play well, at least defensively, against the League's post players, regardless of what he has done in the first 16 games.

Jon Solomon said,

January 10, 2012 @ 11:40 am

Here's a number for you, Adam:

Princeton is 9-1 when Koon is on the floor for 10 or more minutes.

One reason he might have played less versus Siena was the Saints' packed in zone. As the shot chart Brian from Hoya Prospectus drew up shows, we still don't know if DK can shoot from anywhere beyond point blank range!

Right now the strongest five you could put on the floor appears to be Davis, Bray, Koon, Hummer and Darrow. That combination has played 37:25 together and is +23 during that time but their +/- divided by 40 minutes is +24.59 as compared to the current starting five's +9.06.

If you replace Darrow with Connolly that five is +7 in 39:15 and +7.13 when /40.

Jon

Jon Solomon said,

January 10, 2012 @ 11:44 am

Koon's minutes in Princeton's seven losses: 6.71

(High was 19 versus Elon).

Koon's minutes in Princeton's nine wins: 20.88

Jon

Matt Walter said,

January 10, 2012 @ 3:31 pm

Denton Koon is to me as the cowbell is to Christopher Walken. I need more Denton Koon.

Steven Postrel said,

January 11, 2012 @ 12:46 am

One thing I've always wondered about the Princeton offense is why there isn't more interior passing. When a cutter, poster, or driver beats his man and the help comes over, why doesn't the man originally being covered by the help defender follow him in to the rim? Then the guy with the ball can either make an interior pass to the follower or let him get an easy weak-side rebound.

I get the sense from the game descriptions that Koon is indeed following collapsing defenders to the rim, instead of the usual business of backing away to spot up for an open trey. If so, I like it. Maybe some of the other tall players should try it.

Matt Walter said,

January 11, 2012 @ 10:10 am

Steven Postrel said "One thing I’ve always wondered about the Princeton offense is why there isn’t more interior passing. When a cutter, poster, or driver beats his man and the help comes over, why doesn’t the man originally being covered by the help defender follow him in to the rim? Then the guy with the ball can either make an interior pass to the follower or let him get an easy weak-side rebound."

It's funny you should mention that because I noticed Princeton doing this very thing early in the 2010 game against St. Joe's that Jon just posted. Twice the ball went to Hummer in the low post and our center cut from the high post to the weak side. Both times Hummer made nice passes for either an easy bucket or free throws after a foul.

I suspect spacing, who's on the floor, and who has the ball has a lot to do with whether a Princeton player cuts to the basket or drifts to the perimeter when his man doubles down on the player in the post.

As you note, Koon seems to have a good feel for when to cut to the basket.

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