Does Princeton have an honest chance of making it into the 2012 NIT? That was the question I attempted to answer on Wednesday night, but with the picture ever-changing due to conference tournament results I wanted to take one more crack at this possibility prior to Selection Sunday.

For this step-by-step exercise I’m using Ken Pomeroy’s rankings.

Before you click through, realize that Princeton has dipped from 84th to 91st in Pomeroy as of this morning. I opt to write "dipped" instead of "dropped" because this is the result of teams passing the Tigers by winning games since Tuesday not because of drastic changes to the Princeton resume.

Here we go again...

Step one: Copy a list of Pomeroy’s Top 100 teams.

Done. I’ve even put them all into a revised Google spreadsheet if you want to take a look.

Step Two: Review the most recent entry in Andy Glockner’s Bubble Watch series.

Using this as a list of NCAA Tournament "Locks" and "Should Be In" tourney teams, I put all those schools in bold. They're the NCAA's concern now, not mine.

That’s a minimum of 46 out of the 90 teams ahead of Princeton going to the NCAAs.

Step Three: Pick a Pac-12 team.

I originally chose Cal, but Colorado won the conference tournament. It is possible that no other Pac-12 teams are getting in after an exceptionally weak season out west but it is also possible that three teams squeak in. I'll keep Cal in because I think conference reputation is going to help here, even though it is not supposed to.

We're up to 47 teams now.

Step Four: Look at the list of NIT automatic qualifiers who won their conference's regular season title.

This number has increased and now includes Iona, Oral Roberts, Drexel, Middle Tennessee State, Bucknell, Valparaiso, UT-Arlington, Savannah State, Nevada and Stony Brook. Akron too as of a few minutes ago. All of this reduces a 32 team NIT field to 21 available slots.

These teams are represented in the Google document in purple.

Washington could also end up here if they don't make the NCAAs.

Step Five: Eliminate teams with sub-.500 records, if any.

I’m knocking Villanova (13-18), Oklahoma State (15-18) and Virginia Tech (16-17) out of consideration. In the Google document these teams have had their lines struck through.

Step Six: See what we’ve got left.

Virginia (22-9)
Texas (20-13)
Miami (19-12)
Long Beach State (24-8) - Playing in their conference finals right now.
NC State (22-11)
Arizona (23-10)
UCLA (19-14)
Seton Hall (20-12)
BYU (25-8)
Stanford (21-11)
Minnesota (19-14)
La Salle (21-12)
Northwestern (18-13)
St. Bonaventure (18-11)
Tennessee (18-14)
Xavier (20-11)
Oregon (22-9)
Dayton (20-12)
St. Joe's (20-13)
South Florida (20-13)
Washington (21-10)
New Mexico State (25-9)
Marshall (21-12)
Illinois (17-15)
Wyoming (20-11)
Clemson (16-15)
Denver (22-9)
Mississippi (20-12)
Pitt (17-16)
Georgia State (21-11)
Mississippi State (21-12)
Cleveland State (22-10)
Tulsa (17-14)
Iowa (17-16)
Illinois State (20-13)
UMass (22-10)
Princeton (19-11)

That’s 39 teams for 21 NIT slots, however...

...several of these programs will make it into the NCAA Tournament.

Joe Lunardi of Bracketology fame, for example, has South Florida, NC State, Seton Hall and Mississippi State as his last four in.

Let’s take them off the board for now. If they're not going, schools with similar profiles are (barring any more bid thieves). They’re all shown in red on the Google doc.

We’ll also remove some of Lunardi’s more secure tournament teams in Virginia, Long Beach State, Texas, Xavier and BYU. They’re shown in blue on the Google doc.

Step Seven: Adjust accordingly.

Miami (19-12)
Arizona (23-10)
UCLA (19-14)
Stanford (21-11)
Minnesota (19-14)
La Salle (21-12)
Northwestern (18-13)
St. Bonaventure (18-11)
Tennessee (18-14)
Oregon (22-9)
Dayton (20-12)
St. Joe's (20-13)
Washington (21-10)
Marshall (21-12)
Illinois (17-15)
Wyoming (20-11)
Clemson (16-15)
Denver (22-9)
Mississippi (20-12)
Pitt (17-16)
Georgia State (21-11)
---------------------
Cleveland State (22-10)
Tulsa (17-14)
Iowa (17-16)
Illinois State (20-13)
UMass (22-10)
Princeton (19-11)

Unfortunately, counting down from 21 only takes us to the dotted line on this list (which is by no means an exact ranking in the eyes of the NIT committee) and that assumes there will be no more additional season champs eliminated in conference tournaments after I publish headed to the NIT instead.

Some final questions to ponder:

Would all of these teams decide to continue their seasons even if offered? So far that answer seems to universally be "yes."

Does the NIT want a team like Pitt that went 5-13 in the Big East or an Illinois program that fired their coach earlier in the week? Unclear.

Are a touch over .500 programs from major conferences like Iowa or Clemson (16-15 / 8-9) more appealing than a Denver or a Princeton in the eyes of the committee? Completely uncertain. The NIT's procedures for picking a field don't take a specific stance.

If a team qualifies, they can pick'm for whatever reason.

In conclusion, it looks like it will be a very close call but building a compelling case could put Princeton in the NIT field for the first time since 2002.

I don't expect the Tigers to be pulled from this pool into the NIT but if they got a bid I would not be completely shocked like I was when Northwestern got in two seasons ago sporting a triple digit RPI.

From a geographical standpoint Princeton is a perfect fit for an NIT road game at St. Joe's or La Salle.

We'll find out one way or another at 9:00 pm ET on ESPNU.

If not a CBI bid (most likely on the road) is all but certain.

At least the Tigers' profile is much stronger than it was when I parsed this info repeatedly two seasons ago.